🏈 Matchup Notes
We’ve got a full slate of preseason games this week! Here’s a rundown of the best content for your draft, betting and pool prep.
Important Note: This is the first official issue of Matchup Notes, so thanks for subscribing and for being here at the start. Every issue works the same way: I read across 50-plus sites and send you only what’s worth your time, with the name of whoever wrote it. Twice a week, free.
Got feedback? Email me at [email protected]. And if you know someone who’d get something out of this, please pass it along.

📋 Rankings & Draft Strategy
30 ADP risers and fallers
FantasyPros · Aug 12
Derek Brown builds the Stefon Diggs case on per-route efficiency: 8th in yards per route run and 1st in first downs per route run among 109 qualifying receivers, all on a 65.4% route share. Andrew Erickson goes the other way on Courtland Sutton now that Jaylen Waddle is in Denver. Diggs is up 32.9 spots in a week.
Running Back Tiers 2.0: a round-by-round plan
CBS Sports · Aug 11
Jamey Eisenberg thinks the zero-RB reflex has gotten stale, and he has the numbers: 17 teams averaged at least 26 rushing attempts per game in 2021, and 21 did it in 2025.
How to draft quarterbacks in 2026
Sharp Football Analysis · Aug 11
Rich Hribar stops describing the market and tells you how he's playing it. Targets, Superflex handling, and exactly where he's willing to wait. He plans to update it as news breaks, so bookmark it.
Quarterback preview: strategy, fades and sleepers
Yahoo Sports · Aug 11
Justin Boone maps the whole QB landscape in one place. Rankings, who he’s fading at cost, and the late names he keeps ending up with. Read it next to Hribar’s piece above and you’ve got both sides of the position covered.
Backfield outlook: NFC North
FantasySP · Aug 12
Morgan Rode looks at Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Jacobs, and the committees behind them, sorted by division. Good if you like settling a whole division before you argue about one player's ADP.
🔍 Sleepers & Busts
Five busts to avoid in 2026
QB List · Aug 10
Steve Pintado goes after Christian McCaffrey at the 1.04: 311 carries and 400-plus touches last year, turning 30, and a career pattern where every season above 250 carries is followed by injury or decline. He also fades Tetairoa McMillan in the early fourth. Best part is he names a replacement for every player he's off.
5 undervalued wide receivers
FantasyPros · Aug 11
Jim Moorman looks at receivers whose price hasn't caught up to their projected role, led by Jaylen Waddle in Denver.
Four risky tight ends
RotoBaller · Aug 11
Andrew Ball splits four tight ends into targets and avoids at current cost. Tight end is where ADP and outcome come apart worst, and Ball separates real role changes from guys riding last year's box score.
Notable ADP risers and fallers
Yahoo Sports · Aug 11
Matt Okada’s weekly column on Yahoo ADP specifically, which matters if that's where you draft. The Malik Nabers argument is the sharpest one here: he tore the ACL in September, and the ADP hasn't adjusted for how far out from it he is.
💵 Betting & Futures
Moneyline picks for every Week 1 preseason game
Covers · Aug 12
Dustin Saracini goes all 16 games, and the logic is the right kind for August. Cleveland is alternating Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders, Minnesota named Kyler Murray the starter so J.J. McCarthy gets the reps against the Giants, and Justin Fields has a reason to look sharp. Quarterback competitions are where preseason edges live.
Lions vs. Bengals, Thursday night
Covers · Aug 13
Rob Paul knows what we all came for: A preview of the Lions vs. Bengals preseason showdown. Cincinnati is a 6.5-point favorite because Detroit has no quarterback. Dan Campbell won’t play Jared Goff, Teddy Bridgewater just retired, and that leaves Joshua Dobbs, signed this week, and undrafted rookie Luke Altmyer. The case here is for the under, built on weather plus two backup offenses.
Chargers vs. Texans, Thursday night
Covers · Aug 13
Chris Hatfield looks at what appears to be a more competitive preseason opener with the Chargers vs. Texans. Houston opened favored and the line has moved to 1.5 with a total of 36.5. Covers is taking the Chargers on quarterback depth behind Trey Lance and DJ Uiagalelei.
Running back prop overs worth targeting
Sharp Football Analysis · Aug 11
Curtis Hirsch makes his best case on David Montgomery. Houston traded a player and two picks for him, then upgraded his contract, and the last veteran back they imported handled over 89% of the carries in 9 of 14 starts. Hirsch is projecting 200 to 250 carries with a path to 280, and he’s clear this is a volume bet, not an efficiency bet.
Season-long props: QB, RB and WR
Sharp Football Analysis · Aug 10
Hirsch’s full card across all three positions. The Kirk Cousins section shows the process well. He argues the Raiders are openly rebuilding, which is exactly why Cousins starts the opening months, then works out what that does to the yardage number.
🏆 Pools & Survivor
Week 1 survivor picks: Chargers, Jaguars or Lions
PoolGenius · updating
Jason Lisk looks at NFL Survivor Week 1, with a valuable piece that will grow all summer as lines move. Week 1 is Jacksonville’s single best spot of the season, which is exactly why the crowd will pile in. The Chargers are their best spot too, but Los Angeles has strong matchups later, so early popularity may create better value down the road. You have a while before your Week 1 pick is due, but this is the piece to read before you lock anything in.
The survivor strategy guide
PoolGenius · evergreen
Not new, but it's what you should read before Week 1 lines set. Every pick comes down to 3 variables: win odds, pick popularity, and future value.
🎧 Podcasts & Video
Top 10 running backs + trash talkers
The Fantasy Footballers · Aug 12
Andy Holloway, Mike Wright, and Jason Moore run the position including breakdowns of Ashton Jeanty and Derrick Henry.
Five Players Andy Behrens loves
Harris Football · Aug 12
Christopher Harris is daily again now that the Almanac is out. Andy Behrens of TheDeepShot.com joins him to talk five players Behrens love and their fantasy football values.
Rotoworld Football Show
Rotoworld · rolling
Patrick Daugherty and Denny Carter broke down the latest news on August 11, including Kyler Murray’s official starter designation and Luther Burden’s injury.
ETR Redraft Caddy puts rankings inside your draft room
Establish The Run · Aug 11
Yahoo, ESPN, and Sleeper won't let you upload custom rankings, so subscribers have been printing sheets or babysitting a spreadsheet mid-draft. This extension drops ETR ranks into a sidecar and clears players as they go off the board. Draft Kit Pro only.
📌 Worth a look from last week
Zero RB targets, led by Blake Corum
Rotoworld · Aug 4
Denny Carter calls Zero RB a first-or-last strategy and names the backs who make it work. Corum went from 42nd of 77 qualifying rushers in PFF grade in 2024 to 6th in 2025, and Sean McVay will not stop talking him up.
RotoPat's preseason rankings
Rotoworld · Aug 6
Patrick Daugherty's first August board: top 50 backs, top 60 receivers, top 25 quarterbacks and tight ends, with a line of reasoning on every rank. Jahmyr Gibbs is 1, and the one-line explanations are the value.
Matchup Notes is a curation newsletter. I link to the people doing the work, so go read them, subscribe to them, and tell them I sent you.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Nothing here is betting advice.

